Modelling the preference for business charter in the cross-strait market

This paper aims at investigating business travelers' choice behavior between business charter (BC) and the business class of commercial airlines in the cross-strait market. This study applies the stated preference method and sets five scenarios with the combination of various levels of fares, waiting time, privacy and expedient clearance services and inflight communication equipment. Data were collected by purposive sampling and interviewing business travelers near the VIP centers, departure lounges, and the baggage claim areas of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport. A sample with 420 business travelers from Taipei to Shanghai was collected. Then, the binary logit model was employed to analyze how service attributes influence Taiwanese business travelers' choice behavior between BC and business class. Estimation results indicate that fare is the most important factor. Other factors such as gender, seniority, and the number of business trips during the previous year remain significant on the probabilities of choosing BC. Additionally, five specific features of BC were set as dummy variables in the model. Those are transfer time saving, travel time controlling, client entertainment, customer visits and international conference attendance. All of them have positive effects on the preference for using BC.     

影响失地农民再就业的原因分析与政府作为

失地农民再就业一直是党和政府着力解决的"三农"问题之一。从消除制度缺陷、提供培训资金支持、拓宽非农产业就业渠道、搞好就业培训等方面采取的措施尚未见到实效。失地农民再就业受到收入水平、生活成本、工作环境、技能要求、地区经济发展等因素的影响,政府应当在注重产业布局和调整的同时适度保留劳动密集型产业、加大公共财政保障力度,强化用人单位培训责任、系统设计失地农民权益保障制度等方面入手,破解失地农民"被城市化"后的再就业困境。     

盈利能力、环境执法与环保法律实施的股价冲击——基于新《环境保护法》出台的事件研究

基于合规成本理论，围绕新《环境保护法》（以下简称“新法”）的出台，采用沪深两市A股重污染行业上市公司的相关数据，运用事件研究法和多元截面回归实证考察了“史上最严环保法”的股价冲击及其影响因素。实证发现：（1）“新法”颁布和实施均造成了显著的股价冲击；（2）“新法”颁布事件窗口，上市公司的盈利能力加剧了股价冲击，上市公司外部的环境执法力度缓解了股价冲击；（3）“新法”实施事件窗口，盈利能力缓解了股价冲击，环境执法力度与股价冲击没有显著的相关关系。研究表明，“新法”颁布表现出政策冲击效应，而“新法”实施表现出信息发现效应。研究结论有助于理解投资者的行为特征、决策的过程及影响机制。     

Agricultural landowners⿿ response to incentives for afforestation

Previous research has shown that afforestation of agricultural land is a relatively low-cost option compared to energy-based approaches for mitigating net carbon dioxide emissions, and that financial incentives affect landowner behavior and can be used to increase carbon sequestration on private land. In this paper we use stated preference data from private landowners in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. to examine the key factors affecting participation in an incentive program for carbon sequestration through afforestation. We also estimate the corresponding potential for carbon sequestration and its cost. Our results suggest that incentive payments would significantly and positively affect landowners⿿ level of enrollment in a tree planting program.     

What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Despite the widespread belief that Japan’s “Great Stagnation” in the 1990s is due to the financial dysfunction after the collapse of asset price bubbles, Hayashi and Prescott (2002) argue that its main cause is a slowdown in total factor productivity growth, using a calibrated neoclassical growth model. The present paper aims to fill this gap by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with a financial accelerator mechanism and associated financial shocks. Our estimation results show that even in the presence of the financial shocks an adverse neutral technology shock mainly induced the Great Stagnation and that the rate of neutral technological change is strongly correlated with all enterprises’ financial position in the Tankan. Based on these findings, the paper argues that the Great Stagnation was caused by an adverse neutral technology shock that is likely to represent a tightening of firms’ financing, which induced reduction of R&D investment and misallocation of resources as indicated in previous literature.     

Modeling green vehicle adoption: An integrated approach for policy evaluation

This article employs an integrated discrete-continuous car ownership model to jointly forecast households’ future preferences on vehicle type, quantity and use, and to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The model system is estimated on a dataset collected from a web-based stated preference survey conducted in Maryland in 2014. The data contain vehicle purchase decisions and sociodemographic information of 456 households who were requested to state their future preferences over a 9-year period (2014–2022). In each time period, a respondent is faced to four alternatives that include the current vehicle, a new gasoline vehicle, a new hybrid electric vehicle, and a new battery electric vehicle. Intertemporal choices between conventional and “green” vehicles such as hybrid and electric cars capture dynamics in vehicle purchase decisions. Short run and medium-long run situations were predicted and compared based on the first 4-year data and the entire 9-year data of the dynamic panel. Vehicle GHG emissions were calculated correspondingly. We find the introduction of “green” vehicles makes a positive impact on car ownership and use, especially in a medium-long run. Two “green” taxation policies, gasoline tax and ownership tax, were proposed and their impact on vehicle use and emission reductions was evaluated. Results indicate that: (a) gasoline tax is a more effective way to reduce vehicle miles traveled and GHG emissions and (b) gasoline tax makes a higher impact on car use and emission reductions in the medium-long run, while ownership tax makes a higher impact in the short run.     

If you,tourist, behave irrationally,I’ll find you!

When departures from rational behavior can potentially be expected, modeling should allow for their identification and their quantification. In this regard, prices in tourism might have effects that may not be as apparent as economic theory predicts. This article incorporates the sticker shock formulation into the mixed logit model without imposing consistency with consumer theory to accommodate any possible positive or negative price effects. By allowing the parameters of “price” and “sticker shock term” to take any value – negative or positive – we detect abnormal behaviors in the tourist demand: not only is the negative relationship between price and demand inverted for some people but also some tourists might be willing to accept higher-than-expected prices. The “non-well-behaved” groups' shares are estimated.     

Optimal dynamic reinsurance with dependent risks: variance premium principle

In this paper, we consider the optimal proportional reinsurance strategy in a risk model with two dependent classes of insurance business, where the two claim number processes are correlated through a common shock component. Under the criterion of maximizing the expected exponential utility with the variance premium principle, we adopt a nonstandard approach to examining the existence and uniqueness of the optimal reinsurance strategy. Using the technique of stochastic control theory, closed-form expressions for the optimal strategy and the value function are derived for the compound Poisson risk model as well as for the Brownian motion risk model. From the numerical examples, we see that the optimal results for the compound Poisson risk model are very different from those for the diffusion model. The former depends not only on the safety loading, time, and the interest rate, but also on the claim size distributions and the claim number processes, while the latter depends only on the safety loading, time, and the interest rate.     

中国制造业资本偏好水平评价

构建了包括劳动密集型产业和资本密集型产业的政府目标函数,利用2005—2012年中国省际面板数据,测算了劳动密集型产业和资本密集型产业的权重区间。研究结果表明:中国政府目标函数中资本密集产业部门的权重介于0.564~0.623之间,资本密集型产业部门的权重显著大于劳动密集型产业部门;政府更重视资本密集型产业部门的福利。     

上市公司管理层股权激励研究的近期进展

基于坚实的理论基础和丰富的数据支持,有关管理者股权激励问题的研究获得迅速发展。对股权激励问题开展研究不仅有助于更有效合理地设计管理层股权激励契约、缓和委托代理问题,还有利于充分揭示股权激励实施过程中可能产生的负面影响。本文对近年来海外研究上市公司管理层股权激励的进展进行综述,主要包括管理层股权激励的理论基础、股权激励的业绩效应、股权激励对公司盈余管理,以及股东价值和债权人价值的影响等方面的内容,以期为我国加强这方面的研究与实践探索提供参考。